Letting wolves into your home (The Fountain War)

I'd like to say right now, I am a fan of TEST alliance. Despite their repeated claims they suck/are retarded and the occasional/frequent/constant evidence to support this, I can't help but love their attitude and their pilots after fighting alongside them in the last few weeks.

Aridia, Fountain and Cloud Ring, the stage for the drama

That said, I think it's an interesting mental exercise to talk about what could happen post-Fountain.

First of all, let's say the CFC win. I'd guess that TEST get wiped off the map for a while, before reforming in a new area of NullSec while shouting "We didn't want that space anyway" and "Goons can't kill the rebels", with NullSec continuing on as before. Kinda boring. I seriously doubt CFC will invade N3/Tribe etc etc in retaliation for said alliances helping TEST, since they have little interest in taking space beyond Fountain. Like the Mittani said, they wouldn't be fighting TEST at the moment if TEST weren't living in Fountain. This is a war for ISK, not ideals or anything like that. Basically in this vision of the future, the CFC are back on their ISK throne and everyone returns back home to nurse their wounds and mutter darkly about how the CFC are dirty blobbers and don't fight fair. Yawn.

Now instead let's say TEST and friends "win" by pushing the CFC back into Cloud Ring, but decide it would be too costly/a waste of resources to attempt to invade the CFC's home turf, as unlikely as this is. Wiping Goons off the map would be a massive banner to call people to. But let's say this doesn't happen. What happens next?

Well TEST has now got several alliances deployed in/around her space, each with thousands of pilots ready and equipped for a full sov war. TEST is also sitting on one of the biggest ISK supplies in the game at this point. Let's also say that her infrastructure, such as jump bridges etc are still ravaged after the war with the CFC. So we've got a load of bloodthirsty alliances deployed in Fountain with nobody else to fight once the CFC retreat, TEST pretty much on her knees, and a massive pile of ISK up for grabs. 

Yeah, it's not looking good for TEST in this scenario.

Look at it this way, many people in Nulli questioned why we're helping TEST at all, since historically they helped the CFC throw us out of our old home (though this happened before I joined them). The response from leadership was basically "grr Goons". And the majority of our pilots said "good point". And even the ones that didn't entirely agree decided to shut the hell up because fights are fun.

It's a testament to Goonswarm that they've managed to piss off quite so many NullSec alliances.

So once the Goons are no longer viable targets, what's stopping Nulli, or NC. or PL or any other of the alliances in Fountain deciding they don't really give a fuck about TEST and start invading Fountain themselves? The pilots in these alliances certainly have no major love for TEST. Like I said, most of them are only there to shoot the Goons. With the Goons gone, who are they going to shoot? 

And if all these alliances start fighting among themselves for scraps of Fountain's R64s, what's stopping the Goons from reinvading the fractured allies and kicking them all to the curb while TEST attempt to crawl out from under the general melee in one piece?

I'm just saying, I'm glad I'm not in TEST alliance in this vision of the future.

Anyway, I simply felt like talking a little about what I think might happen. Got your own theories? Feel free to tell me I'm wrong/this is what will happen in the comments.

Good luck out there guys :)